Una nuova crisi economica si affaccia all’orizzonte

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Da settimane assistiamo al calo degli indici delle principali borse dei Paesi occidentali. Il motivo è da addurre alla stagnazione dell’economia mondiale e alla fine delle delle fiale di ossigeno delle banche centrali attraverso il cosiddetto Quantitative Easing.

Questo provocherà il pericolo di una forte caduta delle obbligazioni di molte società che si sono finanziate sui mercati approfittando del denaro facile e a costi irrisori. Lo possiamo vedere negli Stati Uniti dove il mercato delle obbligazioni societarie (corporate bond) supera oggi i 9 mila miliardi di dollari, mentre nel 2008 era di 5’500 miliardi. Lo stesso fenomeno finanziario si è ripresentato in Europa. I maggiori rischi per l’investitore si celano nel mercato dei capitali, questo perché molte obbligazioni societarie sono state emesse senza clausole di garanzia legate ai beni della società o ad altre attività tangibili. Il mancato pagamento degli interessi o l’insolvenza, andrà interamente a carico di coloro che le detengono senza immediate conseguenze per le società che le hanno emesse.

Chi al contrario sarà pesantemente colpito, sarà l’intero mercato del credito e quindi a valanga ricadrà sui mercati finanziari. Basta un limitato numero di insolvenze per creare stress negli investitori e provocare uno sciopero degli investitori, simile a quello che mandò in tilt il mercato interbancario e quello monetario nella crisi dei subprime di dieci anni fa. I segnali sono tangibili, sono forti e chiari: il prezzo della protezione contro il rischio di insolvenza di una società è in forte crescita e i fondi di investimento ETF, che fotografano l’andamento del mercato dei titoli obbligazionari, sono in forte calo. Insomma non c’è bisogno del telescopio per vedere le rime di frattura che si stanno aprendo nel mercato del credito. Negli Stati Uniti queste sono molto più evidenti, e lo saranno ancora di più dopo l’accordo tra Russia e Arabia Saudita sul petrolio. Molte società di shale gas finanziano l’estrazione a fratturazione dai costi elevati emettendo titoli spazzatura o junk bond (titoli spazzatura). Una eventuale precipitazione del greggio produrrà l’effetto boomerang. Il problema dell’eccessivo indebitamento non riguarda solo piccole società, ma anche grandi gruppi che possono far precipitare l’economia a Stelle e Strisce.

Analizziamo la top ten tra le grandi Compagnie americane, la General Electic elefante economico americano. La Compagnia ha in pancia 115 miliardi di debiti. Per rientrare dal debito e evitare il crack a medio termine, ha avviato un piano di rientro cedendo molti suoi satelliti, per creare liquidità. Questo forse gli impedirà di fallire, ma quel che è certo, rivoluzionerà la Compagnia facendogli perdere commesse e competitività. Un altro caso emblematico è la più grossa catena di supermercati che ha visto crollare i suoi titoli dopo che si è scoperto l’indebitamento reale della società tenuto nascosto con un meccanismo di scatole cinesi.

È dovuto intervenire l’Eliseo per non far venire a galla la vicenda. Sono stati “invitati” i grossi gruppi bancari francesi per concedere un credito di ulteriori 500 milioni di euro. A calmare le acque ci hanno pensato le grandi banche francesi che hanno immediatamente concesso un credito di 500 milioni di euro. I debiti delle società sopratutto quelle che lo nascondono con meccanismi matematico finanziari sono bombe ad orologeria nell’economia mondiale. I salvataggi mirati, vedi “Eliseo” salveranno le grandi Compagnie, ma le piccole senza santi in paradiso sono destinate a fallire e questo a cascata ricadrà sulle famiglie e piccoli risparmiatori. Non siamo allo stato comatoso ma ci siamo vicini, questo perchè gira ancora una notevole quantità di liquidità. Ma il probabile andamento sulle montagne russe dei mercati non può oscurare la realtà che l’orientamento è ormai chiaramente al ribasso.

Il calo dei mercati può essere accelerato da molte altre fonti di instabilità come lo scontro tra Bruxelles e Roma sui conti pubblici italiani, la guerra commerciale dei dazi tra Stati Uniti e Cina e il rischio di una crisi politica in Arabia Saudita dovuta alla lotta in corso all’interno della famiglia reale divampata dopo l’assassinio del giornalista Jamal Khashoggi. La causa principale è comunque da ricercare al forte rallentamento della crescita dell’economia mondiale. Si sono persi 10 anni per fare quelle riforme necessarie per una crescita economica duratura. Non si è messo mano a correttivi per aggredire la causa principale della crisi che era ed è la stagnazione dei redditi della maggior parte della popolazione per alimentare un aumento sano dei consumi e quindi degli investimenti.

Per superare la crisi si è fatto poco, si è favorito solo i ceti sociali più abbienti e fatto esplodere le ineguaglianze sociali. La Francia ne è un esempio. I mercati finanziari oscillano e i popoli si rivoltano. La prossima crisi economica e il declino del mondo occidentale sono frutto dell’avidità dell’uomo ingordo che ha dimenticato quei valori che sono nel DNA della fratellanza universale.

Maurizio Compagnone

Opinionista di “AgoraMagazine

26

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