Há semanas, assistimos ao declínio nos índices das principais bolsas de valores dos países ocidentais. O motivo se deve à estagnação da economia mundial e ao fim dos frascos de oxigênio dos bancos centrais por meio do chamado Quantitative Easing.
Isso causará o perigo de uma queda acentuada nos títulos de muitas empresas que se financiaram nos mercados, aproveitando o dinheiro fácil e os custos insignificantes. Podemos vê-lo nos Estados Unidos, onde o mercado de títulos corporativos atualmente ultrapassa 9 trilhões de dólares, enquanto em 2008 era de 5’500 bilhões. O mesmo fenômeno financeiro reapareceu na Europa. Os maiores riscos para o investidor estão ocultos no mercado de capitais, porque muitos títulos corporativos foram emitidos sem cláusulas de garantia vinculadas aos ativos da empresa ou outros ativos tangíveis. O não pagamento de juros ou insolvência será inteiramente suportado por quem os detém, sem consequências imediatas para as empresas que os emitiram.
Pelo contrário, quem será fortemente atingido será todo o mercado de crédito e, portanto, o mercado de neve cairá nos mercados financeiros. Um número limitado de inadimplências é suficiente para criar estresse nos investidores e provocar uma greve dos investidores, semelhante à que levou o mercado interbancário e monetário a uma queda na crise do subprime de dez anos atrás. Os sinais são tangíveis, fortes e claros: o preço da proteção contra o risco de insolvência de uma empresa está crescendo fortemente e os fundos de investimento da ETF, que retratam o desempenho do mercado de títulos, estão caindo drasticamente. Em suma, não é necessário que o telescópio veja as rimas de fraturas que estão se abrindo no mercado de crédito. Nos Estados Unidos, isso é muito mais evidente e será ainda mais após o acordo entre a Rússia e a Arábia Saudita sobre o petróleo. Muitas empresas de gás de xisto financiam a mineração de fraturas de alto custo com a emissão de títulos indesejados. Qualquer precipitação do petróleo produzirá o efeito bumerangue. O problema da dívida excessiva não diz respeito apenas às pequenas empresas, mas também aos grandes grupos que podem precipitar a economia de estrelas e listras.
Vamos analisar os dez primeiros entre as grandes empresas americanas, o elefante econômico americano General Electic. A Companhia possui 115 bilhões de dívidas. Para pagar a dívida e evitar a quebra de médio prazo, ele iniciou um plano de pagamento vendendo muitos de seus satélites para criar liquidez. Isso pode impedi-lo de fracassar, mas o que é certo revolucionará a empresa, fazendo-o perder pedidos e competitividade. Outro caso emblemático é a maior cadeia de supermercados que viu seus estoques desmoronarem após a descoberta da dívida real da empresa, escondida por um mecanismo de caixa chinês.
O Élysée teve que intervir para não trazer a história à tona. Os grandes grupos bancários franceses foram “convidados” a conceder um crédito de 500 milhões de euros adicionais. Os grandes bancos franceses pensaram em acalmar as águas e imediatamente concederam um crédito de 500 milhões de euros. As dívidas das empresas, especialmente aquelas que a ocultam com mecanismos financeiros matemáticos, são bombas-relógio na economia mundial. Os resgates direcionados, veja “Eliseu”, salvarão as grandes empresas, mas as pequenas sem santos no paraíso estão destinadas a fracassar e essa cascata cairá sobre famílias e pequenos poupadores. Não estamos em estado de coma, mas estamos próximos, porque ainda há uma quantidade significativa de liquidez em execução. Mas a provável tendência do mercado de montanhas-russas não pode ofuscar a realidade de que a orientação está agora claramente para baixo.
O declínio nos mercados pode ser acelerado por muitas outras fontes de instabilidade, como o confronto entre Bruxelas e Roma nas finanças públicas italianas, a guerra comercial de tarifas entre os Estados Unidos e a China e o risco de uma crise política na Arábia Saudita devido à luta em andamento. dentro da família real explodiu após o assassinato do jornalista Jamal Khashoggi. No entanto, a principal causa está na forte desaceleração do crescimento da economia mundial. Foram perdidos 10 anos para fazer as reformas necessárias para o crescimento econômico duradouro. Não foram tomadas medidas corretivas para atacar a causa raiz da crise que foi e é a estagnação da renda da maioria da população para alimentar um aumento saudável do consumo e, portanto, dos investimentos.
Para superar a crise, pouco foi feito, apenas as classes sociais mais ricas foram favorecidas e as desigualdades sociais explodiram. A França é um exemplo. Os mercados financeiros flutuam e os povos se revoltam. A próxima crise econômica e o declínio do mundo ocidental são o resultado da ganância do homem ganancioso que esqueceu aqueles valores que estão no DNA da fraternidade universal.
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