Confindustria: previsões para 2019 e correções

confindustria cilp italia

As duas exceções (que estão ligadas à possibilidade de aumentar os gastos públicos sem criar mais dívidas):
1) satisfazer as necessidades do Estado com títulos de taxa de juros negativos (ou seja, intensificar o número de vendas de títulos de curto prazo) até persiste o fenômeno anômalo, mas vinculado à gestão da liquidez pelos bancos que eliminam títulos tóxicos e poupa crédito à economia real;
2) emitir e inserir moeda nacional que não seja de dívida e de circulação nacional (que não é tratada pela legislação europeia).
Finalmente, é surpreendente que a Confindustria persista em não considerar o efeito do comportamento bancário na economia. Os bancos economizam no crédito porque aplicam classificações que penalizam pequenas empresas e artesãos (na Alemanha, algo mais acontece e devemos olhar para os bancos não especulativos de lá; os grandes, no entanto, estão em situação pior do que a nossa, mas compram títulos do governo taxas extraordinariamente baixas ou, como dissemos, negativos).

É claro que muitas das perspectivas italianas de 2019 estão ligadas ao funcionamento das duas principais medidas de política econômica do governo: mas não está claro por que a pequena redistribuição de renda (obtida em grande parte pela movimentação de recursos públicos já coletados) não deve ter efeitos positivos sobre o governo. PIB como um regime de pensões menos restritivo que o anterior; mais importante, talvez, será, nos próximos meses, a capacidade da máquina administrativa de retornar, a vários investimentos e infraestruturas sustentáveis, dezenas de bilhões “suspensos” nos orçamentos regionais e não apenas que a colaboração completa e com a chamada burocracia possa retornar para a sua função. Escusado será dizer que 50-60 bilhões fariam a diferença e talvez constituam o verdadeiro “trunfo” do atual governo.


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